The two great financial crises of the past century are the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession, which began in 2008. Both occurred against the backdrop of sharp credit booms, dubious banking practices, and a fragile and unstable global financial system. When markets went into cardiac arrest in 2008, policymakers invoked the lessons of the Great Depression in attempting to avert the worst. While their response prevented a financial collapse and
catastrophic depression like that of the 1930s, unemployment in the U.S. and Europe still rose to excruciating high levels. Pain and suffering were widespread. The question, given
this, is why didn't policymakers do better? Hall of Mirrors, Barry Eichengreen's monumental twinned history of the two crises, provides the farthest-reaching answer to this question to date. Alternating back and forth between the two crises and between North America and Europe, Eichengreen shows how fear of another Depression following the collapse of Lehman Brothers shaped policy responses on both continents, with both positive and negative results. Since bank failures were a
prominent feature of the Great Depression, policymakers moved quickly to strengthen troubled banks. But because derivatives markets were not important in the 1930s, they missed problems in the so-called shadow banking
system. Having done too little to support spending in the 1930s, governments also ramped up public spending this time around. But the response was indiscriminate and quickly came back to haunt overly indebted governments, particularly in Southern Europe. Moreover, because politicians overpromised, and because their measures failed to stave off a major recession, a backlash quickly developed against activist governments and central banks. Policymakers then prematurely succumbed to the temptation
to return to normal policies before normal conditions had returned. The result has been a grindingly slow recovery in the United States and endless recession in Europe.Hall of
Mirrors is both a major work of economic history and an essential exploration of how we avoided making only some of the same mistakes twice. It shows not just how the "lessons" of Great Depression history continue to shape society's response to contemporary economic problems, but also how the experience of the Great Recession will permanently change how we think about the Great Depression.
The two great financial crises of the past century are the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession, which began in 2008. Both occurred against the backdrop of sharp credit booms, dubious banking practices, and a fragile and unstable global financial system. When markets went into cardiac arrest in 2008, policymakers invoked the lessons of the Great Depression in attempting to avert the worst. While their response prevented a financial collapse and
catastrophic depression like that of the 1930s, unemployment in the U.S. and Europe still rose to excruciating high levels. Pain and suffering were widespread. The question, given
this, is why didn't policymakers do better? Hall of Mirrors, Barry Eichengreen's monumental twinned history of the two crises, provides the farthest-reaching answer to this question to date. Alternating back and forth between the two crises and between North America and Europe, Eichengreen shows how fear of another Depression following the collapse of Lehman Brothers shaped policy responses on both continents, with both positive and negative results. Since bank failures were a
prominent feature of the Great Depression, policymakers moved quickly to strengthen troubled banks. But because derivatives markets were not important in the 1930s, they missed problems in the so-called shadow banking
system. Having done too little to support spending in the 1930s, governments also ramped up public spending this time around. But the response was indiscriminate and quickly came back to haunt overly indebted governments, particularly in Southern Europe. Moreover, because politicians overpromised, and because their measures failed to stave off a major recession, a backlash quickly developed against activist governments and central banks. Policymakers then prematurely succumbed to the temptation
to return to normal policies before normal conditions had returned. The result has been a grindingly slow recovery in the United States and endless recession in Europe.Hall of
Mirrors is both a major work of economic history and an essential exploration of how we avoided making only some of the same mistakes twice. It shows not just how the "lessons" of Great Depression history continue to shape society's response to contemporary economic problems, but also how the experience of the Great Recession will permanently change how we think about the Great Depression.
Part I: Introduction
Part II: The Best of Times
1. New Age Economics
2. Golden Globe
3. Competing on a Violent Scale
4. By Legislation or Fiat
5. Where Credit is Due
6. Castles in Spain
Part III: The Worst of Times
7. Spent Bullets
8. The Next Leg Down
9. On Europe's Shores
10. Will America Topple Too?
11. Largely Contained
12. Scant Evidence
13. The Spiral
14. Fish or Foul
Part IV: Toward Better Times
15. Revival or Reform
16. Something for Everyone
17. Takahashi's Revenge
18. Dip Again
19. Preventing the Worst
20. Stressed and Stimulated
21. Unconventional Policy
Part V: Avoiding the Next Time
22. Wall Street and Main Street
23. Normalization in an Abnormal Economy
24. Making Things as Difficult as Possible
25. Men in Black
26. Euro or Not
Part VI: The Shadow of History
In addition, success was the mother of failure: the success
Barry Eichengreen is Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. His previous books include Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar and the Future of the International Monetary System and Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939.
"This is undoubtedly one of the best books on the history of
economic policy-making to be published in the last half century...
clear, compelling account of the Great Depression and the Great
Recession." -- Professor Brad Bratley Bateman (Randolph College),
HETP Vol.2
"This important book and the ideas behind it are already entering
the public policy sphere at the highest level."--2016 Alice Jones
Prize Award Presentation
"Barry Eichengreen's Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, the
Great Recession,
and the Uses - and Misuses - of History stands in contrast to
contemporary mainstream economics by pointing out how much we can
learn from history when attempting to understand the contemporary
economic world."--Mediterranean Studies
"The Great Depression was the signal economic event of the 20th
century and, we hope, the Great Recession will be the signal event
of the 21st. Few people on earth can draw out the similarities and
differences as well as Barry Eichengreen, who paints with equal
facility in broad strokes and in fascinating detail. Reading Hall
of Mirrors is a joy. Keeping it on your bookshelf for future
reference is a necessity."--Alan Blinder, author of After the
Music
Stopped
"Historical analogies come cheap, but historical insight relevant
to today is both rare and valuable. Barry Eichengreen's Hall of
Mirrors is packed with the essential insights that give the reader
understanding of the macro policy mistakes of the 1930s and the
2000s, both why they occurred and how devastating they were. A
must-read." --Adam S. Posen, President, Peterson Institute for
International Economics
"Much of modern economics has ignored the study of economic
history. Barry Eichengreen's Hall of Mirrors shows why that is a
huge mistake. Combining fascinating narrative detail with cogent
analysis of the relevant theory, it illuminates crucial parallels
and differences between the causes of and policy response to the
Great Depression and the Great Recession. It illustrates how good
historical analysis must inform current policy choices, but also
how
superficial historic analogy can lead us astray. It carries
powerful implications for the policies still needed to drive
continued recovery from the Great Recession, and to stop us
repeating in future the
mistakes which led to disaster in the past." --Adair Turner, Senior
Fellow, Institute for New Economic Thinking
"Eichengreen the economist joined forces with Eichengreen the
historian to produce a truly unique book that revisits the past in
the light of current discussions and examines present issues in the
light of past experience. Eichengreen demonstrates forcefully how
important-but also how difficult-it is to learn from history. A
must-read for all students of the global crisis but also for
everyone interested in understanding why experience is no guarantee
against
policy errors." --Jean Pisani-Ferry, Professor, Hertie School of
Governance (Berlin) and Commissioner-General for Policy Planning
(Paris)
"A powerful plus ça change vibe courses through [Eichengreen's]
comparison, as he discusses each era's major players and
events--e.g., the grifters (Charles Ponzi vs. Bernie Madoff), the
reparative legislation (Glass-Steagall Act vs. Dodd-Frank), the
economic advisers (FDR's brains trust vs. Obama's team), the
institutional collapses (Union Guardian Trust vs. Lehman Brothers)
the bubbles (the Florida land boom vs. the subprime mortgage
loans), the
panicked electorate and the nervous politicians. Eichengreen
leavens his wide-angle treatment of complex issues-he devotes
almost equal time to economic developments in Europe during each
era--with capsule
portraits of the major players, with becoming modesty about his own
assessments (notwithstanding his obvious intellect) and even with
occasional humor." -- Kirkus Reviews
"[A] rollicking, villain-rich story contrasting then and now." --
The Atlantic
"Hall of Mirrors is destined to change the way we think about both
the Great Depression and the Great Recession. Commentators and
scholars will debate its thesis for many years to come." --
Financial Times
"[S]urvey-like in breadth . . . a worthy, and distinctive, addition
to the literature on the crash." -- Wall Street Journal
"A very good book" --Paul Krugman, New York Times
"Excellent" --John Authers, Financial Times
"Mr Eichengreen recreates the last century's two great episodes of
financial instability with compelling portraits of bankers and
policymakers and accessible theoretical explanations . . . his
version of the 1930s is rich with detail and myth-busting
insights." -- The Economist
"Hall of Mirrors's review of economic policy in stressful times is
a well-organized and entertaining narrative of data, personalities
and anecdotes." -- Commentary
"Of the scores of books that have examined aspects of this
never-ending crisis, none may be better than Barry Eichengreen's
Hall of Mirrors. Eichengreen is one of the most prolific economic
historians writing today. He is also among the most astute. The
author of books on the gold standard, European unification, and the
international monetary system, Eichengreen approaches his subject
from a thoroughly international perspective, detailing how the
crisis spread and showing how containment efforts stumbled on the
mismatch between a highly integrated global financial system and a
regulatory system dominated by national political concerns." --
Strategy +
Business
"Hall of Mirrors is written in the past tense, for much of what it
discusses is before today. But it is really a present tense book,
for the resolution of the 2008 crisis is not done, just postponed.
Credit pyramids are ever more imaginative, ever taller. The
remaining dilemma is just this: Can commercial banks and investment
banks, bank regulators and central bankers be trusted when the
rewards for skirting the rules - the massive bonuses, the
revolving doors between central and commercial banks, and the
guarantee of bailouts by government - are so handsome?
Eichengreen's answer is no. That is the implicit point in Hall of
Mirrors, which shows with
analytical force and elegant prose that the financial systems of
the U.S. and other countries remain skewed to protect those who
take from the many to reward the few." -- Financial Post
"Barry Eichengreen is an ideal scholar to reflect upon both crises,
together and separately . . . On equally firm footing discussing
events in Europe and the United States and ranging effortlessly,
expertly, and impressively across decades and continents, Hall of
Mirrors earns a prominent place among the first rank of the many
books that have been written in the wake of the global financial
crisis of 2007-2008 . . . Hall of Mirrors works through the
current crisis with dexterity and acumen. If anything, the book is
more riveting, and even more convincing, when engaging the current
crisis." -- Los Angeles Review of Books
"This fine book -- a fascinating read for the historically-minded
-- reviews in detail the story of the Great Depression and its
remarkable parallels with the crises of the last decade . . .
Eichengreen ingeniously interweaves the two episodes, rather than
treating them separately, making manifest the similarities and
differences, both in market developments and in official
reactions." -- Foreign Affairs
"[B]rilliantly conceived, and written, as a dual-track account. It
is full of wit, and wisdom of course . . . The book is replete with
masterstrokes . . . The Introduction and the Conclusion should be
bound together and dropped from airplanes on European capitals." --
International Affairs
"Both the breadth and depth of Eichengreen's research are
impressive. Whether it is the house bubble in Florida in the 1920s
or in Spain in the 2000s, the gold standard in the 1930s or the
euro in the 2010s, not a single relevant story is left out." --
International Affairs
"Eichengreen moves with assurance and elan through a century of US
and European economic history to show the delusions of which humans
are capable (and the power of finance capital lobbying) as they
convince themselves that this time it really will be different."
--Roger Middleton, Economic History Review
"[Barry Eichengreen] does, however, provide the clearest, best
developed history of the economics of the paroxysmal asset-value
crashes of 1929-30 and the Great Depression, long thought to be
among the sequelae of the First World War and the toxic seeds of
the Second. His new book strengthens this argument and clarifies
the mechanisms of generation and connection. This is its principal
relevance to military history." - William D. O'Neil, Michigan War
Study
Review
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