Table of Contents

List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes
Preface
About the Authors
PART I: FUNDAMENTALS OF DECEPTION AND COUNTERDECEPTION
Chatper 1: Deception: The Basics
Why Deception?
Definitions
The Deception Target
Basic Principles
Roles of Operations and Intelligence
Chapter 2: The Methodology
The OODA Loop
OODA Loop Perspectives
Planning Deception: The Inverse OODA Loop
Executing Deception: The Forward OODA Loop
Chapter 3: The Outcome Scenario
Outcome Scenarios - The PMESII View
Political
Military
Economic
Social
Information
Infrastructure
Chapter 4: The Target
Individual Decision Modeling
Collective Decision Modeling
Cultural Modeling
Chapter 5: The Story
What Makes a Good Story?
Characteristics of a Good Deception Story
Plausibility
Reinforcement
Influence Nets
Chapter 6: The Channels
Understanding the Channels
Sensor Mapping
Channel Characterization
Channel Exploitation
Chapter 7: The Traditional Intelligence Channels
OSINT
COMINT
HUMINT
IMINT
Technical Collection
Chapter 8: The Cyberspace Channel
Deception in Cyberspace
Web-Based Deception
Web-Based CNE/CNA
Standalone Computers and Intranets
Cyber Deception
Chapter 9: Planning and Executing Deception
Checking the Decision/Action Model: Red Team Analysis
Checking for Unfavorable Outcomes: Alternative Analysis
Deconfliction
Overview of the Execution Process
Achieving Surprise
Operating Inside the Opponent′s OODA Loop
Attending to Details and Timing
Managing the Developing Scenario
Chapter 10: Preparing to Counter Deception
Assessing Vulnerability
Assessing the Threat
Chapter 11: Identifying Deception
Deception Detection via Channel Management
Evaluating the Source
Evaluating the Channel
Evaluating the Evidence
PART II: EXERCISES
Chapter 12: Sensor Mapping and Channel Tracking Exercises
Sensor Mapping Exercises
Channel Management Exercises - Deception Projection
Chapter 13: General Deception Planning Exercises
Exercise 1: Derailing a Trade Negotiation
Exercise 2: Protecting Drug Cartel Shipments
Exercise 3: Taking Down the Fordow Uranium Enrichment Facility
Exercise 4: Countering Israeli Efforts to Take Down Fordow
Exercise 5: Supporting a NEO Evacuation
Exercise 6: Disrupting Boko Haram Operations
Chapter 14: Military Deception Planning Exercises
MILDEC CONOP Example: Operation Bulldozer
Exercise 1: Operation Lights Out
Exercise 2: Operation Timber Float
Exercise 3: Operation Closing Time
Chapter 15: Deception Detection Exercises
Exercise 1 - The Valley of Doubt
Exercise 2 - The YUTA Ghost
Bibliography
Index

About the Author

Robert M. Clark has more than five decades of U.S. intelligence community experience. A USAF lieutenant colonel (retired), Dr. Clark served as an electronics warfare officer and intelligence officer. At the CIA, he was a senior analyst and group chief responsible for developing analytic methodologies. He was cofounder and CEO of the Scientific and Technical Analysis Corporation, a privately held company serving the U.S. intelligence community. Clark holds an SB from MIT, a PhD in electrical engineering from the University of Illinois, and a JD from George Washington University. Beyond analyzing wicked intelligence issues, his passion is writing on the topic of intelligence. His books include Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach (5th edition, 2016), The Technical Collection of Intelligence (2010), and Intelligence Collection (2014). He is coauthor, with Dr. William Mitchell, of Target-Centric Network Modeling (2015) and Deception: Counterdeception and Counterintelligence (2019); and coeditor, with Dr. Mark Lowenthal, of Intelligence Collection: The Five Disciplines (2015). Dr. Clark also develops and teaches courses for audiences in academia, national intelligence, and the military. He currently serves as an adjunct professor at the Johns Hopkins University teaching graduate courses.




 

 

William L. Mitchell’s military and intelligence career spans three decades including operations in Afghanistan, the Balkans, Iraq, Africa, and French Guyana. Dr. Mitchell is currently an active member of Danish Defence and an all-source specialist, researcher, instructor, and lecturer. At the Royal Danish Defence College (RDDC) he is responsible for the synchronization of theory, practice, and education regarding intelligence and joint operations. He is a member of the RDDC Research Board and supports NATO and US Department of Defense research, education, and doctrine development programs. He has several publications on intelligence and battlespace agility, and was part of the NATO Science & Technology Organization group awarded the 2014 NATO Scientific Achievement Award. Dr. Mitchell has a BA, an MA with Distinction from Kent University, and a PhD from Aarhus University in Political Science. He is a decorated war veteran of two countries, with one citation and several medals, including the French Croix de Combatant and the Danish Defence medal.

Reviews

"The chapters on the exercises are a treasure chest of material to work with, covering a whole array of scenarios. . . . I think virtually every page and topic could spark robust and spirited classroom discussion starting with the text title itself."
*Ronald W. Vardy*

"Most students have very little or no background [in this subject area], so Clark’s work is great to introduce students to intelligence and the analytical disciplines . . . a really excellent book that fills a gaping hole in the public literature and is of genuinely great value to both students and practitioners."
*Carl A. Wege, Professor Emeritus*