Since 2001, the United States has created or reorganized more than two counterterrorism organizations for every apprehension it has made of Islamists apparently planning to commit terrorism within the country. Central to this massive enterprise is what the FBI frequently calls "ghost-chasing"-the efforts by police and intelligence agencies to follow up on over ten million tips. Less than one alarm in 10,000 fails to be false-the rest all point to ghosts. And the
vast majority of the leads deemed to be productive have led to terrorist enterprises that are either trivial or at most aspirational. As John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart suggest in Chasing Ghosts, it is
often an exercise in dueling delusions: an extremist has delusions about changing the world by blowing something up, and the authorities have delusions that he might actually be able to overcome his patent inadequacies to do so. Chasing Ghosts systematically examines this expensive, exhausting, bewildering, chaotic, and paranoia-inducing process. It evaluates the counterterrorism efforts of the FBI, the National Security Agency, the Department of Homeland
Security, and local policing agencies. In addition, it draws from a rich set of case studies to appraise the capacities of the terrorist "adversary" and to scrutinize "the myth of the mastermind." Mueller and Stewart
also look closely at public opinion, a key driving force in counterterrorism efforts. The chance that an American will be killed by a terrorist within the country is about one in four million per year under present conditions. However, poll data suggest that, although over a trillion dollars has been spent on domestic counterterrorism since 2001, Americans say they do not feel safer. No defense of civil liberties is likely to be effective as long as people and officials continue to believe that
the threat from terrorism is massive, even existential.The book does not argue that there is nothing for the ghost-chasers to find-the terrorist "adversary" is real and does
exist. The question that is central to the exercise-but one the ghost-chasers never really probe-is an important and rather straight-forward one: is the chase worth the effort? Or is it excessive given the danger that terrorism actually presents? As Chasing Ghosts shows in vivid detail, standard evaluative procedures suggest that the costs often far outweigh the benefits.
Since 2001, the United States has created or reorganized more than two counterterrorism organizations for every apprehension it has made of Islamists apparently planning to commit terrorism within the country. Central to this massive enterprise is what the FBI frequently calls "ghost-chasing"-the efforts by police and intelligence agencies to follow up on over ten million tips. Less than one alarm in 10,000 fails to be false-the rest all point to ghosts. And the
vast majority of the leads deemed to be productive have led to terrorist enterprises that are either trivial or at most aspirational. As John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart suggest in Chasing Ghosts, it is
often an exercise in dueling delusions: an extremist has delusions about changing the world by blowing something up, and the authorities have delusions that he might actually be able to overcome his patent inadequacies to do so. Chasing Ghosts systematically examines this expensive, exhausting, bewildering, chaotic, and paranoia-inducing process. It evaluates the counterterrorism efforts of the FBI, the National Security Agency, the Department of Homeland
Security, and local policing agencies. In addition, it draws from a rich set of case studies to appraise the capacities of the terrorist "adversary" and to scrutinize "the myth of the mastermind." Mueller and Stewart
also look closely at public opinion, a key driving force in counterterrorism efforts. The chance that an American will be killed by a terrorist within the country is about one in four million per year under present conditions. However, poll data suggest that, although over a trillion dollars has been spent on domestic counterterrorism since 2001, Americans say they do not feel safer. No defense of civil liberties is likely to be effective as long as people and officials continue to believe that
the threat from terrorism is massive, even existential.The book does not argue that there is nothing for the ghost-chasers to find-the terrorist "adversary" is real and does
exist. The question that is central to the exercise-but one the ghost-chasers never really probe-is an important and rather straight-forward one: is the chase worth the effort? Or is it excessive given the danger that terrorism actually presents? As Chasing Ghosts shows in vivid detail, standard evaluative procedures suggest that the costs often far outweigh the benefits.
TK
John Mueller is a political scientist at Ohio State University and the Cato Institute. He is the author, co-author, or editor of 18 books and hundreds of scholarly and popular articles. His research areas include international relations, security studies, risk analysis, public opinion, foreign policy, terrorism and counterterrorism, and dance history.Mark G. Stewart is Professor of Civil Engineering at The University of Newcastle, Australia. He has more than 25 years of experience in probabilistic risk and vulnerability assessment of infrastructure and security systems. His expertise in risk assessment is applied to a wide range of threats and hazards most notably terrorism and climate change. Along with Mueller, he is the co-author of Terror, Security, and Money (OUP).
"Does civilization face an existential threat of terrorism?
Politicians and security bureaucrats have a vested interest in
answering 'yes,' while blowing off the costs (in money,
opportunities, and lives) of responding to their exaggerated and
sometimes hallucinated threats. This evidence-based exposé of the
counterterrorism industry is witty and eye-opening, and offers a
sound basis for intelligent policy and for our conception of the
world we live
in."-Steven Pinker, Johnstone Professor of Psychology, Harvard
University, and author of The Better Angels of Our Nature and The
Sense of Style
"In their provocative and well-informed book, Mueller and Stewart
evaluate the policies and the politics of counterterrorism. Chasing
Ghosts challenges the fundamental premises on which the post-9/11
counterterrorism framework is built, finding that the overall
terrorism threat is limited, that many would-be terrorists are
incompetent amateurs, and that much of the spending on
counterterrorism is wasted."-Daniel Byman, Senior Fellow, Center
for Middle East
Policy, Brookings Institution
"This terrific book is essential reading for anyone who wants to
understand the U.S. War on Terror. Mueller and Stewart show that
America's national security elites were so spooked by the events of
9/11 that they started seeing imaginary terrorists everywhere. To
deal with these ghosts, the Bush and Obama administrations spent
huge amounts of money and unnecessarily grew the national security
state to the point where it is now a potential threat to our
civil
liberties. When future historians look back someday at this period,
Chasing Ghosts will stand out as a rare example of measured
thinking about a threat that has been inflated to absurd
proportions."-John
J. Mearsheimer, Professor of Political Science, University of
Chicago
"This book comes as more and more evidence is emerging that the
real 'terror' on our streets is being created by those who have
been charged with eradicating it!"-Lowell Bergman, Distinguished
Chair in Investigative Reporting, University of California,
Berkeley
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